Thursday, July 10, 2008

Anyone Remember Decoupling?

To those once sanguine economists and market pundits who held that the global economy would, could, might, fare quite well in the face of a serious stumble in the U.S., I offer the following chart as evidence to the errs of the ‘decoupling’ philosophy.

MSCI-Europe, Asia and Far East Index (World Markets Excluding United States)
 

 

One need not make economics so difficult.  Should your largest trading partner suffer a credit crisis, you are bound to feel the effects.

German, French Exports Decline on Euro, Cooling Global Economy

China exports, Singapore GDP signal slowdown

Asian, European markets fall
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Posted by crj at 15:41:47 | Permalink | Comments (2)

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Will History Rhyme?


THEN:
 

October 31, 1989

Japanese to Buy 51% Of Rockefeller Center; Mitsubishi to Pay $846 Million for Stake

Read full story here.

NOW:

June 8, 2008
New York’s Chrysler Building Bought by Abu Dhabi Fund

Read full story here.

We know how the former transaction, along with myriad other high profile investments of the period turned out.  Only time will tell whether this new breed of Middle Eastern mogul will fare better than their Japanese counterparts.  On the plus side for them is the potential for re-urbanization due to the high cost of the very petroleum products which they produce.  Alternatively, though, one wonders about the their time horizon in light of the difficulties in the US and global banking system and the potential for the domestic real estate market to find a floor somewhere considerably lower than current levels.

Posted by crj at 15:22:12 | Permalink | Comments (2)

Thursday, July 3, 2008

On The Dollar

Bush Administration Quotes Regarding Our Currency:

 

Former Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill, 2001:

 

O’Neill was quoted by a German newspaper as saying, “We are not pursuing, as often said, a policy of a strong dollar. In my opinion, a strong dollar is the result of a strong economy.”

The International Economy

May 01, 2001


Former Treasury Secretary John Snow, 2003:

 

Mr. Snow’s comments on US TV on Sunday night had included ritual support for strong-dollar policies.  But during a second appearance on ABC News, he said:

“When the dollar is at a lower level, it helps exports, and I think exports are getting stronger as a result,” he said.

BBC News

May 12, 2003

 

“I think the re-appointment John Snow is the re-affirmation of the de facto weak dollar policy that really goes back to Paul O’Neill,” said Ethan Siegal of The Washington Exchange, a firm that tracks policy issues for institutional investors.       

Market Watch

December 8, 2004

 

President George W. Bush, July 2008:

 

“We’re strong-dollar people in this administration and have always been for a strong dollar, and believe that the relative strengths of our economy will reflect that,” he said.

 

The Economic Times

July 3, 2008

Posted by crj at 17:54:05 | Permalink | Comments (1) »

Wednesday, July 2, 2008

An Underreported Headline and a Well Written Article

Al Gore’s Personal Electricity Consumption Up 10% Despite “Energy-Efficient” Renovations

Energy guzzled by Al Gore’s home in past year could power 232 U.S. homes for a month

Read Full Story Here  (while you’re reading, keep in mind that Mr. Gore has multiple homes and offices and travels extensively in promoting his vision of a “green” world)

Time Magazine weighs in on Ethanol

Click here to read a very interesting Time Magazine article, printed in April, regarding some of the pitfalls associated with converting foodstuffs, namely corn, into energy products.   

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Posted by crj at 15:23:13 | Permalink | Comments (2)